As the political silly season reaches its heights, polls show that the JLP and PNP are virtually neck and neck among the voting public. With the PNP having held a 9-point lead coming into 2025, it must be a little nervous at Old Hope Road and wondering if it went too big too early. The JLP, as the governing party, has the ability to turn on the cash spigot and do shiny ribbon cuttings, things which have ramped up in the quiet campaign season, and it has been doing it effectively, eating away at the PNP’s lead.
The main problem with the PNP is that it is devoid of concrete policies. Sure, individuals have proposals and can articulate them in a policy fashion, but the party as a whole seems to be flying by the seat of its pants, no unity in message, and importantly, no concrete proposals which can ring as nice catchy slogans. As an example, see the JLPs 5 in 4, a totally unrealistic proposal even when explained, but it is a simple idea and catchy.
This is going to be a close election, and as a result, the margins matter the most. Neither party can afford to alienate people, and both will be seeking to get as many uncommitted persons who intend to vote as possible. That cohort will make or break the election. Both sets of bases are rearing to go and as such will turnbout. The kingmakers will be the small group of people who are thinking about voting but who traditionally wish a pox on both parties.
The PNP in recent weeks seems hell bent on alienating these voters, as seen with its opposition to the JLP’s school bus sytsem. When explained in detail, the opposition makes some sense. The buses will not be able to transport all the kids, so in the end, the problem will remain.
We all get that, it’s not enough buses, but JUTC doesn’t have enough buses so already the opposition is a non-starter because you have to begin somewhere. The PNP proposal to use taxis and buses to transport the kids with State subsidies sounds nice, until you remember that lot of them won’t go to certain places because of damage to vehicles, they drive dangerously, and will seek to pack as many people as possible leading to the unwanted touching which is a problem on public transportation.
The solution to my lung cancer diagnosis brought on by 12 packs a day can’t be 6 packs subsidised by my insurance.
We all get that the problem will remain, that it is not a magic bullet, but what the PNP has put forth is a no go, especially if as Mr Damion Crawford has said the PNP will maintain the buses and integrate them in a new transportation system (essentially saying he would maintain what he labels as a failed model). If we are being honest, it reeks of desperation and looks like the PNP is taking it out on kids. The JLP’s accusations of bad mind were not really sticking, but people take notice of it when the party suggests bad policies and criticises heavily the new policy, which impacts children.
It’s not a good look and is a surefire way to alienate voters. Rock solid PNP voters who I know have said it is not a good look opposing this move. If they are saying that, what is the general public thinking?
What they should have done is say it’s an interesting move, but we will improve it and expand it, and leave it at that. It looks bad to the parents of dead and maimed schoolchildren, kids who travelled the dangerous country routes to and from school, when this is opposed. They do not hear the half-hour argument; all they hear is that you are opposed to the safe transportation of their kids. As they say in rugby, this could be a costly unforced error.
But this goes back to the ultimate problem of the PNP, its lack of a clear policy and vision. We don’t know what the party stands for, but we sure do know what it opposes and while that may be enough to oust a really unpopular government, polls show that the PM isn’t doing that badly and that matters in a system where in theory we only vote for MPs but in reality, as noted by Everald Warmington, we vote for the party leader.
It is a dangerous game to hope that the public grows weary of the incumbent. It is dangerous because it risks the incumbent polishing up the room before the election through major spending, and it is, more than anything, lazy and spineless. Hoping that the public will grow so weary of the incumbent that they will take anything, even something which has not been properly explained, how, if at all, it is any different from what they currently have.
Do we know how, if at all, the parties differ on macroeconomic policies? How do they differ on crime? We know the PNP does not like the states of emergency (neither do I), but what is the party’s alternative? What is the dividing line on education, transportation, trade, international relations, and the list goes on. We know how past PNP administrations have acted, much like this JLP has acted, so the question is an important one: what are the differences between them now?
The PNP has had a whole year to do this, to present itself to the public. The party has been in mini-campaign mode non-stop since the local government elections, and it still hasn’t taken the time to explain itself. With the margins mattering the most during this election, it should have used the time to craft policies that make it distinct from the JLP, not leaving people wondering what it stands for.
With the campaign at this stage, it makes little sense for the PNP to do this now, there is not enough time to meaningfully differentiate itself from the JLP policy-wise in a way that people will fully digest. It will have to hope that the people are just that peeved with the JLP or that some major JLP implosion occurs.
It is risky but that is the bed the PNP has made for itself and while it is too hard to call the election now, we can surely say that if the PNP continues to make errors like the school bus one, or choose that as its hill to make a stand on, it will pay dearly. Put bluntly, no one likes seeing kids becoming political footballs, and the optics are not on the PNP’s side. Leave it alone, flog the issues of corruption, cost of living, and shoddy infrastructure, this one is not a vote
